In the economic upheaval that followed the COVID-19 pandemic, adult students flocked to higher education in droves. Every fall from 2021 to 2024, the number of first-time students over the age of 25 grew—including a substantial jump in fall 2024, when new students older than 25 grew 18.7 percent over the previous year, according to National Student Clearinghouse Research Center data.
But this past fall, that trend reversed. The number of first-time learners over the age of 25 dropped by 15.5 percent from fall 2024 to fall 2025. And though some experts see that decrease as a rightsizing of the post-COVID enrollment boom, others say it’s a trend worth paying attention to, especially at a time when institutions are increasingly relying on adult enrollment to compensate for declining numbers of high school graduates.
“We’re always very cautious about our undergraduate enrollment, because we are experiencing a demographic decline in traditional-aged students going to college,” said Beth Donaldson, managing director of consulting services for EAB, an enrollment management firm. And more students of all ages are deciding to forgo college altogether, she added. “So, now institutions have to be really thoughtful about their marketing strategies and how they can reach adult learners.”
This fall’s decrease was largest at private colleges, where older students already make up a smaller minority of students, and was least severe at community colleges, where new enrollment of those over 25 declined by 11.7 percent.
The First-Time Adult Student
Over the past several decades, institutions, especially community colleges and regional public universities, have focused on serving older adult students, bolstering resources to support them and increasing course flexibility to accommodate the schedules of adults with jobs and children.
But in many cases, efforts to recruit these students primarily target those who have already completed some college credits. A number of states and individual institutions have launched efforts specifically to reach this cohort, many of which have proven successful. For example, over a four-year period, a North Carolina program aimed at re-enrolling individuals who stopped out of college brought 3,098 students—just under a quarter of those the program contacted—back to college.
New adult students, meanwhile, make up only about 10 percent of all adult learners, according to Susan Mayer, chief learning officer for Achieving the Dream, a nonprofit network of community colleges.
It’s not that colleges aren’t interested in recruiting first-time adult students, enrollment leaders told Inside Higher Ed. But it’s harder to find them than it is to reach former students who are already in an institution’s records and can be contacted directly.
Andrea Soonachan, senior university dean for K–16 initiatives and adult pathways at City University of New York—which bucked the national trend and increased enrollment of adults over 25 by 14 percent this fall—said the system has developed several unique ways of reaching both new and returning adult learners, including by providing marketing materials to family members of admitted high schoolers.
“Over the last four years or so, we’ve really made efforts to make sure adults know that they’re welcome at CUNY, that they can be successful at CUNY, that we have supports and services to help them achieve their goals at CUNY, because we’ve been really purposeful about making sure that they are part of our strategy long term,” said Soonachan.
Causes of the Decline
Experts cited a few reasons first-time adult enrollment may have fallen this year. Several said the ongoing discourse about the value of college may have played a role, especially considering first-time adult students don’t have the same firsthand perspective as returners who already have some college under their belt.
“The problem with constantly questioning the value of higher education in the public sphere is that some adults who are on the margin of deciding between going to college or not going to college will eventually decide not to enroll,” said Justin Ortagus, a professor of higher education and public policy at the University of Texas at Austin. “And oftentimes, these conversations are politically motivated and not actually reflective of data … There’s a perception of a low or declining value of higher education, and there’s the reality projected in the data as far as labor market returns.”
Financial decisions are also a major factor; although anyone entering higher education has to think about cost, adult students who are already in the workforce have to consider the opportunity cost, weighing not just how much they’ll pay for an education but also how much income they will lose while going to school. That choice is especially challenging for students who have no prior credits, because their time to completion will be longer.
Short-term credentials—offered not just by institutions of higher education but also by outside companies—have also become increasingly popular in recent years and may have special appeal for working adults looking to advance or change careers. A 2025 report by Credential Engine, a nonprofit that researches the credentialing landscape, counted 6,549 providers of course-completion certifications—the type of credential awarded for completing an online course, such as a coding boot camp. That number likely includes some institutions of higher education but is mostly comprised of for-profit companies, the report notes.
As those pathways become more common—and, in many cases, gain state support and funding—adults hoping to learn new professional skills may turn to alternatives to traditional higher education.
Concerns about the current employment landscape may also be dissuading adult learners from beginning degree programs, Mayer of Achieving the Dream said.
“Coming out of COVID, there was a lot of retraining, upskilling and reskilling of workers. There’s no question that’s going to continue. But I think there’s some confusion in the market about the impact AI and other technologies are going to have and what that means for the right upskilling program to enroll in,” she said. “I wonder if there’s some standing back and waiting to see.”
Experts differed on whether the decline is something institutions should be worried about. Mayer noted that because the total number of new adult students is relatively small, any decline in their enrollment might look more severe than it actually is.
But Marcus Crook, vice president of recruitment and enrollment management at Ivy Tech Community College, the two-year system in Indiana, which saw increases in adult enrollment year over year this fall, said he found the data point worth paying attention to.
He noted that first-time adult students often face some unique barriers, including anxiety about whether higher education is right for them and about navigating unfamiliar processes. Ivy Tech, he said, has been successful at enrolling new adult learners in large part because they system has a slew of resources aimed at helping adult students traverse that unfamiliar territory.
If adult enrollment is declining nationwide, “there’s always a reason why,” he said. “There’s credentials you can get that aren’t part of higher education that they could seek to lead to employment … so that’s something to be considering across the nation as we go forward.”
